What About the Market?
Sales and prices are down year over year but prices up 3 months running. Sales volume is down YoY, and this time last year it was down even more YoY. I’m confident saying that we’ve bottomed and are slowly climbing back up. Except condos. We haven’t reached the bottom there yet.
Anecdotally, I’ve been noticing something interesting in the detached resale market. Nicely developed resale homes (with yard, deck, fence, often basement done) are selling with much more urgency than the inventory stats would suggest they should.
Based on a hunch, I tunneled underneath the stats for the Airdrie market.
Talking strictly detached homes here. Semi detached and multifamily are another story altogether.
New build spec homes listed on the MLS count for about 20% of the detached listings in Airdrie right now. But historically (going back 6 months anyway) those new builds have only accounted for 10% of MLS sales volume.
When I run the numbers in terms of supply, the amount of active detached listings in Airdrie right now works out to a little over 4 months supply… leaning into buyer’s market territory.
But that simply hasn’t been what I’ve experienced out here in the trenches. Detached homes that are presented nicely have been selling quickly, often with competing offers.
A lot of that missing sales volume is going into new homes, but it doesn’t show up in the MLS stats.
When I remove 2025 and newer built homes from the equation, the numbers shift dramatically:
Resale homes 2024 build and older (not a perfect analog; there is the occasional exception but this mostly works) have only a 3.25 month supply. Balanced market figures. And new spec homes have a 6.85 month supply… deep into buyer’s market territory.
It’s only a few data points, but it confirms my suspicion and aligns with my anecdotal experience. This suggests that we are oversupplied on new builds which is skewing the data to indicate a buyer’s market which doesn’t really exist. And this only accounts for the spec homes that builders list on the MLS. For every one they’ve got listed, they’ve got dozens more available as unsold pre-builds. The market is flooded with new homes.
I ran the equivalent numbers for Calgary as well and got similar, if slightly less dramatic results. Buyer’s market on new homes.
New home listings on the MLS are polluting the data. Either list them all or list none.
Not everyone wants a new home. That new home smell is intoxicating but you don’t get a back yard, a deck, a fence, a developed basement. Your new community will take years to get established. You may not have a school or even a grocery store or gas station. And you’ll be surrounded by mud and construction waste for a long time. Get used to flat tires from running over nails and screws. There are 11 new communities with new homes for sale in Airdrie and I think 26 in Calgary. They all have smaller lots and more density than the older neighborhoods. Zero lot lines, narrower roads, no street parking, no trees.
If you insist buying a new home:
Be careful. There are a lot of low grade builders operating right now, turning out shit product. They are hiring contractors at the lowest bid, many of which are employing temporary foreign workers with no skill and no accountability. Not all new homes are built the same. Some are criminally bad. Watch some inspector Marty videos to see what I mean.
Choose a reputable builder. Mckee, Calbridge, Shane, Morrison, Cedarglen, etc.
Bring your Realtor from day 1. We’ll help you pick the best location, we’ll consult you on which upgrades are worth it which are a waste. We’ll make sure you get the best possible deal. We’ll come to all the site visits and inspections. We’ll keep the builder honest. There are a lot of builders competing for a finite number of new home buyers. They are hungry, they are leveraged and they need to sell the house more than you need to buy it. And our service won’t cost you anything… the builder will pay us. I wish I’d had an experienced agent with me when I bought new homes… would have avoided a lot of mistakes and saved a lot of money.
Full market report here.
I made this reel to summarize.
